Energy Back To The Bear Side

Prior to the market close the Energy model, based on ERX,  is giving a sell indication:


So the score stands 4 bulls and 6 bears.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------

    Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
    Finance, based on FAS. 
    SP 500, based on SPXL. 
    Retail, based on RETL.

 
-----------B E A R S-------------- 

    Energy, based on ERX.    
    Small Caps based on TNA. 
    Mid Caps based on MIDU. 
    Real Estate, based on DRN.      
    Technology, based on TECL.
    Basic Materials, based on MATL. 

Mistake On the 20th - Real Estate is Bullish, Not Retailers.

Prior to the market close the Energy model, based on ERX,  is giving a buy indication:


So the score stands 5 bulls and 5 bears.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------

    Energy, based on ERX.    
    Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
    Finance, based on FAS. 
    SP 500, based on SPXL. 
    Real Estate, based on DRN.      
 

 
-----------B E A R S-------------- 

    Small Caps based on TNA. 
    Mid Caps based on MIDU. 
    Technology, based on TECL.    Basic Materials, based on MATL. 
    Retail, based on RETL.

And Now My Energy Model Is Bullish

Prior to the market close the Energy model, based on ERX,  is giving a buy indication:


So the score stands 5 bulls and 5 bears.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------

    Energy, based on ERX.    
    Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
    Finance, based on FAS. 
    SP 500, based on SPXL. 
    Retail, based on RETL.

 
-----------B E A R S-------------- 

    Small Caps based on TNA. 
    Mid Caps based on MIDU. 
    Real Estate, based on DRN.      
    Technology, based on TECL.
    Basic Materials, based on MATL. 

Financial, Retail and SPX Bull Indicators

With the way the market is moving today I am more convinced my model is good at showing overbought/oversold conditions.

Prior to the market close 3 models are giving a buy indication: Financials based on FAS,  Retailers based on RETL and SP500 based on SPXL.  As such in my paper trading (see the "What If" page) I will be buying these 3 leverage ETFs tomorrow.  I'll wait until the dust settles from today's sell-off; probably around 11:30 or so.


So the score stands 9 bears - 4 bulls. 

----------B U L L   I N D I C A T O R S--------------

    Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
    Finance, based on FAS. 
    SP 500, based on SPXL. 
    Retail, based on RETL.

 
----------- Remaining B E A R S-------------- 

    Small Caps based on TNA. 
    Mid Caps based on MIDU. 
    Energy, based on ERX.    
    Real Estate, based on DRN. 
    Technology, based on TECL.
    Basic Materials, based on MATL. 

Small Caps Model Bearish

Several days after the secondary Small Cap model (based on the 4x ETF TNA) went bearish this afternoon the primary model did too. So I sold TNA in the paper account see the "What If" page.

So the score stands 9 bears - 1 bull. 

----------B U L L   I N D I C A T O R S--------------

     Biotechnology, represented by BIB 


----------- Remaining B E A R S-------------- 

    Small Caps based on TNA. 
    Mid Caps based on MIDU. 
    Finance, based on FAS. 
    Energy, based on ERX. 
    Real Estate, based on DRN. 
    SP 500, based on SPXL. 
    Technology, based on TECL . 
    Basic Materials, based on MATL. 
    Retail, based on RETL.

Financial Model Is Bearish

As expected the primary Financial model went bearish this afternoon before the close. As such I paper traded and sold FAS at the close, see "What If" page for paper trading results. I say "expected" because the secondary model for Financials went bearish yesterday.


So the score stands 8 bears - 2 bulls. 

----------B U L L   I N D I C A T O R S--------------

     Small Caps based on TNA. 
     Biotechnology, represented by BIB 


----------- Remaining B E A R S-------------- 

    Mid Caps based on MIDU. 
    Finance, based on FAS. 
    Energy, based on ERX. 
    Real Estate, based on DRN. 
    SP 500, based on SPXL. 
    Technology, based on TECL . 
    Basic Materials, based on MATL. 
    Retail, based on RETL.

Small Caps Indicator May Become Bearish

The alternate models, based on randomly picked stocks' momentum,   have a bearish indicator for the small caps which is evaluated by comparing the aggregate momentum of the stocks against the leveraged ETF - TNA.

While this is not using my primary model (stocks picked with high correlations to the ETF) the secondary model may be a prelude indicator for the primary.

Model Change

I was tracking 2 Small Cap models so I am dropping SAA (volume too low), keeping TNA, and adding a mid cap model using MIDU as the tracking leveraged ETF.

SAA did not have any transactions in my paper trades since I began the system at the beginning of this year.

MIDU has not displayed a bullish indicator this year.

Financial buy confirmed? Technology next?

In a secondary model (which uses randomly picked stocks instead of related stocks) the technology and financial models created a buy signal with yesterday's data.  In the primary model - tech's model remains a bear while the financial model has been a bull since 1/31.