What

First and foremost, this is an unproven method of choosing when to enter and exit a position. Since back-testing is used to produce the models future results may not reflect or produce expected returns.

2013-03-28

Only One Buy Indicator Remains

Using  today's closing  #'s the Technology model based on TECL. is now bearish.  As such TECL will be sold in the paper trading account  on Monday afternoon.

The score is now 1 bull and 8 bears.


----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------
  • Retail, based on RETL.

----------- T H E   B E A R S-------------- 
  • Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
  • Mid Caps based on MIDU.
  • Real Estate, based on DRN.
  • SP 500, based on SPXL.
  • Small Caps based on TNA
  • Finance, based on FAS.    
  • Energy, based on ERX.
  • Technology, based on TECL.

2013-03-26

My Short-Term Models for Retail and Technology Are Bullish

From yesterday's #'s the models based on RETL and TECL are now bullish.  As such they will be purchase in the paper trading account this afternoon.

The score is now 2 bulls and 7 bears.


----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------
  • Retail, based on RETL.
  • Technology, based on TECL.

----------- T H E   B E A R S-------------- 
  • Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
  • Mid Caps based on MIDU.
  • Real Estate, based on DRN.
  • SP 500, based on SPXL.
  • Small Caps based on TNA
  • Finance, based on FAS.    
  • Energy, based on ERX.

2013-03-23

Back To No Bull Indicators & 9 Bears

From Friday's numbers the last of the 3 bullish indicators turned.  So near Monday's close I will sell ERX, FAS, and TNA.

So the score stands 9 bears and 0 bulls.

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

----------- T H E   B E A R S-------------- 

  • Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
  • Mid Caps based on MIDU.
  • Real Estate, based on DRN.
  • SP 500, based on SPXL.
  • Retail, based on RETL.
  • Technology, based on TECL.
  • Small Caps based on TNA
  • Finance, based on FAS   
  • Energy, based on ERX.
  •  

2013-03-20

Technical Analysis Whipsaw

One problem when using TA to tell you when to buy or sell is whipsaw - when an indicator says buy and then within the next day or two it says sell and vice versa.  Well that's what happened with my model.  Two of the buy indicators on Monday became sells today - TECL and RETL.  So over in my paper account (see the WHAT IF page) TECL and RETL will be sold.  And to follow up with yesterday's activity FAS and ERX were purchased today.

So the score stands 6 bears and 3 bulls.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------
  • Small Caps based on TNA
  • Finance, based on FAS   
  • Energy, based on ERX.


----------- T H E   B E A R S-------------- 

  • Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
  • Mid Caps based on MIDU.
  • Real Estate, based on DRN.
  • SP 500, based on SPXL.
  • Retail, based on RETL.
  • Technology, based on TECL.

2013-03-19

2 More Bullish Indicators


Finance and Energy now have bull indicators.

So the score stands 4 bears and 5 bulls.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------
   Retail, based on RETL.
   Technology, based on TECL.
   Small Caps based on TNA
   Finance, based on FAS
   Energy, based on ERX.


-----------B E A R S-------------- 

    Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
    Mid Caps based on MIDU.
    Real Estate, based on DRN.
    SP 500, based on SPXL
    

2013-03-18

3 New Bull Indicators

 With today's drop the bull indicator is shown for 3 of the leverage ETFs the model is following,  note I dropped MATL from the list.
Updated 3.19 - SPXL was not a buy TECL was the buy.

So the score stands 6 bears and 3 bulls.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------
   Retail, based on RETL.
   Technology, based on TECL.
   Small Caps based on TNA
-----------B E A R S-------------- 

    Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
    Finance, based on FAS
    Energy, based on ERX.
    Mid Caps based on MIDU
    Real Estate, based on DRN     

    SP 500, based on SPXL
    

2013-03-17

Models Rebuilt And A New Beginning

I got bored with the old models.  They seemed to be not doing much of anything but waiting. So this weekend I reran the model builder using different logic.   Basically it is an average of all possibilities for each of three short term momentum periods 3, 4, and 5.   Only  periods and crossover points that produced a positive return were used when summing to get to the average.  Below are the results. As you can see from the back test, which covers that last 250 trading days, the results are impressive.  Ahhh... but past results do not guarantee future returns so I will start paper trading (see the What IF page) to test the process hence forth.  And since the falling 3 model is presently all bearish, thereby providing a good basis point, this model will be used in the paper trail.

 

One fact that bothers me about these models.  Looking at the previous call and current call dates NONE OF THEM CALLED FOR A BUY JUST PRIOR TO THIS CURRENT MARKET RISE AND SOME ARE CALLING (See the Falling 4 and 5 models) A BUY AS OF THIS PAST FRIDAY.

Falling 3 Model

SymbolBacktest $Previous CallDateCurrent CallDate
tecl14,598.90Bull2013-02-20Bear2013-02-27
fas19,072.79Bull2013-02-20Bear2013-02-27
erx20,396.04Bull2013-02-20Bear2013-02-28
retl13,226.05Bull2013-02-20Bear2013-02-27
drn15,765.17Bull2012-11-08Bear2012-11-13
tna24,221.62Bull2013-02-20Bear2013-02-27
spxl16,875.01Bull2013-02-21Bear2013-02-27
bib14,185.06Bull2012-11-08Bear2012-11-13
midu17,697.77Bull2013-02-21Bear2013-02-27

Falling 4 Model

SymbolBacktest $Previous CallDateCurrent CallDate
tecl13,440.18Bear2013-02-27Bull2013-03-15
fas16,023.56Bull2013-02-21Bear2013-02-27
erx20,442.04Bull2013-02-20Bear2013-02-27
retl14,664.62Bear2013-02-27Bull2013-03-15
drn15,559.11Bull2013-02-21Bear2013-02-27
tna14,184.42Bear2013-02-27Bull2013-03-15
spxl17,434.88Bull2013-02-21Bear2013-02-27
bib14,303.49Bull2013-02-21Bear2013-02-27
midu18,480.19Bull2013-02-21Bear2013-02-27

Falling 5 Model

SymbolBacktest $Previous CallDateCurrent CallDate
tecl14,968.96Bear2013-02-27Bull2013-03-15
fas18,232.52Bear2013-03-04Bull2013-03-15
erx21,922.02Bear2013-02-27Bull2013-03-15
retl16,401.46Bear2013-02-27Bull2013-03-15
drn18,681.09Bull2013-02-20Bear2013-02-27
tna21,621.15Bear2013-02-27Bull2013-03-15
spxl19,890.52Bull2013-02-21Bear2013-03-04
bib16,106.09Bull2013-02-21Bear2013-02-27
midu19,333.63Bull2013-02-21Bear2013-03-04

2013-03-01

All 10 Models Are Bearish.


For the past two hours all of my models are bearish.  As such I will close out all of the paper holdings.


So the score stands 10 bears and 0 bulls.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------


  -----------B E A R S-------------- 

    Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
    Finance, based on FAS
    SP 500, based on SPXL
    Retail, based on RETL.
    Energy, based on ERX       
   Small Caps based on TNA
    Mid Caps based on MIDU
    Real Estate, based on DRN     
    Technology, based on TECL.
    Basic Materials, based on MATL