With the past weekend being a 3 day holiday and a quarter end and with most of the signals having sold indicators (sans Retail) I decided to update the models. The new models still use the same categorization and aggregating concepts; what's new is that I added a new selection criteria of picing the best from a range of multiple periods (3 through 10). As it turns out a 5 day period seems to be the most proficient.
From the previous work Retail (which follows the levarage ETF RETL) was in a buy mode and contrarily in the new model it is in a sold mode. As such in the paper account RETL will remain as a hold until either it goes to a sell in the old model or it goes buy then sell in the new model.
Running the models with Monday's numbers produced 3 buys. The following is the output from the model runs. The "Backtest $" column is what the model would have produced over the 12 months with an initial $10,000 investment. Remember past performance is not guarantee of future results.
From the previous work Retail (which follows the levarage ETF RETL) was in a buy mode and contrarily in the new model it is in a sold mode. As such in the paper account RETL will remain as a hold until either it goes to a sell in the old model or it goes buy then sell in the new model.
Running the models with Monday's numbers produced 3 buys. The following is the output from the model runs. The "Backtest $" column is what the model would have produced over the 12 months with an initial $10,000 investment. Remember past performance is not guarantee of future results.
| Symbol | Backtest $ | Previous Call | Date | Current Call | Date |
| tecl | 15,754.61 | SELL | 2013-03-26 | BUY | 2013-04-01 |
| fas | 20,044.62 | SELL | 2013-03-26 | BUY | 2013-04-01 |
| erx | 20,706.82 | BUY | 2013-03-18 | SELL | 2013-03-26 |
| retl | 22,836.71 | BUY | 2013-03-18 | SELL | 2013-03-26 |
| drn | 13,231.28 | BUY | 2013-03-21 | SELL | 2013-03-26 |
| tna | 21,047.91 | SELL | 2013-03-26 | BUY | 2013-04-01 |
| spxl | 17,683.50 | BUY | 2013-03-21 | SELL | 2013-03-26 |
| bib | 17,812.32 | BUY | 2013-03-21 | SELL | 2013-03-26 |
| midu | 16,033.95 | BUY | 2013-03-18 | SELL | 2013-03-22 |
The score stands (again using RETL's previous model's buy and the above new model 3 buys) 5 bearish and 4 bullish.
As such, the paper account will purchase TECL, FAS, and TNA sometime this afternoon.
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