Models Updated

With all models in a sold mode I have rebuilt the models and have added a tenth.

The new model is  for the Russell 2000 represented by the leveraged ETF URTY

So as things now stand there are 10 bearish and 0 bullish models.

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

----------- T H E   B E A R S -------------- 

• Retail, based on RETL.
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Finance, based on FAS.    
• Small Caps based on TNA.
• Real Estate, based on DRN
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
• Technology, based on TECL.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY

Remaining Models: Retail, SP500, Finance and Small Caps Go Bearish

Using today's 12 Noon numbers as closing numbers the remaining models have gone to the sell side: 
Retail, based on RETL, SP 500, based on SPXL. Finance, based on FAS. and Small Caps based on TNA.

Unless the real closing numbers generate different results, the paper account will sell the above mentioned 4 ETFs sometime Thursday.

Score: 0 Bulls and 9 Bears -

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

----------- T H E   B E A R S -------------- 

• Retail, based on RETL.
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Finance, based on FAS.    
• Small Caps based on TNA.
• Real Estate, based on DRN
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
• Technology, based on TECL.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.

Biotech and Retail Models Get Bearish

Using today's 3PM numbers as closing numbers two models have gone to the sell side: Biotechnology, represented by BIB.  and Real Estate, based on DRN.

As such, the paper account will sell the above mentioned 2 ETFs sometime Wednesday.

Score: 4 Bulls and 5 Bears -

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Retail, based on RETL.
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Finance, based on FAS.     
• Small Caps based on TNA.

----------- T H E   B E A R S -------------- 
Real Estate, based on DRN

•  Real Estate, based on DRN
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
• Technology, based on TECL.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.

Technology, Energy and MidCaps Models Give Sell Signal

Using today's closing numbers three models have gone to the sell side: Technology, based on TECL Energy, based on ERX and Mid Caps based on MIDU.

As such, the paper account will sell the above mentioned three ETFs sometimeTuesday.

Score: 6 Bulls and 3 Bears -

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Retail, based on RETL.
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.  
• Finance, based on FAS.     
• Small Caps based on TNA.

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------

• Technology, based on TECL.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.

Retail, S&P500, Real Estate and Biotech Now All Bullish

With Wednesday's big drop the remaining four models that were bearish are now on the buy side: Retail based on RETL,  SP 500,based on SPXL,  Real Estate based on DRN and  Biotechnology represented by BIB.  

As such, the paper account will purchase the above mentioned four ETFs sometime today.

Score: 9 Bulls and 0 Bears -

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Retail, based on RETL.
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.  
• Technology, based on TECL.
• Finance, based on FAS.     
• Small Caps based on TNA.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------

• n/a

Technology, Finance, Energy, Small Caps and Mid Caps Models Go Bullish.

With today's big drop five models go to the buy side:  Technology based on TECL, Finance based on FAS,  Energy based on ERX,  Small Caps based on TNA, and Mid Caps based on MIDU.  

This may truly prove the models mettle.

As such, the paper account will purchase the above mentioned five ETFs sometime Tuesday afternoon.



Score: 5 Bulls and 4 Bears -

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Technology, based on TECL.
• Finance, based on FAS.     
• Small Caps based on TNA.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.

 
----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------

• Retail, based on RETL.
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.  

All Models Now Say Sell

With today's historic highs the models continue to show their way of indicating an overbought (or oversold) condition.

As such, the paper account will sell the remaining leverage ETF holdings  Finance, based on FAS, Small Caps based on TNA, Technology, based on TECL, Retail, based on RETL, Energy, based on ERX,  and SP 500, based on SPXL 

Thursday afternoon.

Score: 0 Bulls and 9 Bears -

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------

• Finance, based on FAS.     
• Small Caps based on TNA.   
• Technology, based on TECL.
• Retail, based on RETL.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.  

Paper Trade Results

bib net: 10509.43

drn net: 10310.60

erx net: 10695.37

fas net: 10717.49

midu net: 10182.98

retl net: 10838.60

spxl net: 10961.75

tecl net: 10215.01

tna net: 11373.75

Real Estate Back To Sell

Another model made a  quick turn this time Real Estate, based on DRN, goes back to the bear side after only two or three days

As such, the paper account will sell DRN sometime Wednesday afternoon.


Score: 6 Bulls and 3 Bears -

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Retail, based on RETL.
• Technology, based on TECL. 
• Finance, based on FAS.     
• Small Caps based on TNA.  

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------

• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.  

Mid Caps Back To Sell

A quick turn for the Mid-Caps model based on MIDU as it goes back to the bear side after only a couple of days

As such, the paper account will sell MIDU sometime Tuesday afternoon.


Score: 7 Bulls and 2 Bears -

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Retail, based on RETL.
• Technology, based on TECL. 
• Finance, based on FAS.     
• Small Caps based on TNA.  

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------

• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.  

Almost Completely Bullish

With the continued sell-off on Friday 2 models have become bullish -  Real Estate, represented by DRN, and SP 500, based on SPXL.  The score stands  8 bullish and 1 bearish. All that remains on the bearish side is Biotechnology.

As such, the paper account will purchase DRN and SPXL sometime Monday afternoon.



----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Retail, based on RETL.
• Technology, based on TECL. 
• Finance, based on FAS.     
• Small Caps based on TNA.  

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.  

With Today's Drop Models Get Aggressive

I continue to see these models as overbought/oversold indicators.  With today's sell-off there are 3 new buy flags for Energy ( ERX ), Retail( RETL ) ( see previous posting about why it's already held ) and Mid Caps ( MIDU ). The score stands  6 bullish and 5 bearish. 

As such, the paper account will purchase ERX and MIDU sometime tommorow afterrnoon.

Since Retail was already owned in the paper account from the previous model it will continue to be held.   Ironically, the old model gave Retail a sell yesterday.


----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Retail, based on RETL.
• Technology, based on TECL. 
• Finance, based on FAS.     
• Small Caps based on TNA.  

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• SP 500, based on SPXL.

Using New Models - 3 New Bullish Signals

With the past weekend being a 3 day holiday and a quarter end and with most of the signals having sold indicators (sans Retail)  I decided to update the models.  The new models still use the same categorization and aggregating concepts; what's new is that I added a new selection criteria of picing the best from a range of multiple periods (3 through 10).  As it turns out a 5 day period seems to be the most proficient.

From the previous work Retail (which follows the levarage ETF RETL) was in a buy mode and contrarily in the new model it is in a sold mode.  As such in the paper account  RETL will remain as a hold until either it goes to a sell in the old model or it goes buy then sell in the new model.

Running the models with Monday's numbers produced 3 buys.  The following is the output from the model runs.  The "Backtest $" column is what the model would have produced over the 12 months with an initial $10,000 investment.  Remember past performance is not guarantee of future results.

Symbol	Backtest $	Previous Call	Date	Current Call	Date
tecl	15,754.61	SELL	2013-03-26	BUY	2013-04-01
fas	20,044.62	SELL	2013-03-26	BUY	2013-04-01
erx	20,706.82	BUY	2013-03-18	SELL	2013-03-26
retl	22,836.71	BUY	2013-03-18	SELL	2013-03-26
drn	13,231.28	BUY	2013-03-21	SELL	2013-03-26
tna	21,047.91	SELL	2013-03-26	BUY	2013-04-01
spxl	17,683.50	BUY	2013-03-21	SELL	2013-03-26
bib	17,812.32	BUY	2013-03-21	SELL	2013-03-26
midu	16,033.95	BUY	2013-03-18	SELL	2013-03-22

The score stands (again using RETL's previous model's buy and the above new model 3 buys) 5 bearish and 4 bullish. 
As such, the paper account will purchase TECL, FAS, and TNA sometime this afternoon.


----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Retail, based on RETL.
• Technology, based on TECL. 
• Finance, based on FAS.     
• Small Caps based on TNA.  

----------- T H E   B E A R S-------------- 

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Energy, based on ERX.