EOY - Reset

It appears that the models will not be making any more moves for 2013 so I will rebuild the models for 2014 and restart the paper accounts at $10,000.

Paper Trade Results for 2013

bib	net: 20265.06	Buy and Hold: 24572.73
drn	net: 10451.38	Buy and Hold: 9490.30
erx	net: 13468.90	Buy and Hold: 17026.04
fas	net: 17393.44	Buy and Hold: 20718.09
midu	net: 15887.96	Buy and Hold: 20234.48
retl	net: 13888.81	Buy and Hold: 23136.63
spxl	net: 14287.85	Buy and Hold: 20050.89
tecl	net: 11798.60	Buy and Hold: 17048.96
tna	net: 18177.87	Buy and Hold: 22500.00
urty	net: 14561.13	Buy and Hold: 22657.09

Only one model (DRN's) did better than buy and hold.

All 10 Leverage ETF Models Are Bearish

Using the 2PM #'s as closing #'s the models all went to the sell side this afternoon.

Sell Today: Biotechnology(BIB), Real Estate(DRN), Energy(ERX), Finance(FAS), Mid Caps(MIDU), Retail(RETL), SP 500(SPXL), Technology(TECL), Small Caps(TNA), and Russell 2000(URTY)
So in the paper account we will be selling.


Score - Bulls: 0   Bears: 10
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

All 10 Leverage ETF Models Are Buying

Using the 1PM #'s as closing #'s the remaining bearish models are now bullish.  Probably due to today's big sell-off;  as mentioned before these models tend to indicate short-term overbought/oversold conditions.


In the paper account, after 3PM, we will be buying.Buy Today: Real Estate(DRN), Finance(FAS), Mid Caps(MIDU), Retail(RETL), SP 500(SPXL), Technology(TECL), Small Caps(TNA), and  Russell 2000(URTY).  The other two ETFS,  BIB and ERX, were purchased in late November.


Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

1 of the 3 Remaining Bullish Leverage ETF Models Gets Bearish

Sell Today: Real Estate(DRN)

So in the paper account we will be selling.

Score - Bulls: 2   Bears: 8

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Energy as represented by ERX

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

As usual I'm using the 3PM numbers as closing numbers.

Several Models Indicate A Short Term Overbought Condition.

The models used are for short term trading in 10 leveraged ETFs.  The bottom line to the model's method are for calls at overbought (sell) and oversold (buy) conditions.  Using the 3PM numbers as closing numbers seven models when to the sell side. And the market is up across the board to validate the short term overbought condition.

Sell Today: Finance(FAS), Mid Caps(MIDU), Retail(RETL), SP 500(SPXL), Technology(TECL), Small Caps(TNA) and Russell 2000(URTY).  As noted in yesterday's posting I missed the buy signal on RETL so it is already sold (and I missed out).

So in the paper account I will be selling.

Score - Bulls: 3   Bears: 7

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

Energy Leverage ETF is Bullish.

Using today's 3PM numbers as closing numbers the model for the Energy Leverage ETF (ERX) is bullish.

So in the paper account we will be buying ERX

Somehow I missed a buy for the Retail ETF.  It went to a buy sometime between 11.7 and today. It will remain as unowned in the paper account.

Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

Energy Leveraged ETF Says Sell

The model for the Energy ETF went bearish Today: Energy(ERX)   I don't see anything in the news that would prompt this action so it simply must be an overbought segment.

So in the paper account we will be selling.

Score - Bulls: 8   Bears: 2
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Energy as represented by ERX
• Retail as represented by RETL

Oversold? 8 of the Models Get Bullish

Using the 3pm #s as closing #s 8 of the Leveraged ETF models go to the buy side: Biotechnology(BIB) Real Estate(DRN) Finance(FAS) Mid Caps(MIDU) SP 500(SPXL) Technology(TECL) Small Caps(TNA) Russell 2000(URTY)

So in the paper account we will be buying.

Score - Bulls: 9   Bears: 1
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Retail as represented by RETL

Only One Bullish Leverage ETF Model Left.

Using the 3PM #'s as closing numbers the models say "Sell: Retail(RETL)"

So in the paper account we will be selling.

Score - Bulls: 1   Bears: 9
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Energy as represented by ERX

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

8 Models Flip Back to The Bear Side

Running the models early by using the 1PM numbers as closing numbers 8 models say Sell Today: Real Estate(DRN) Finance(FAS) Mid Caps(MIDU) SP 500(SPXL) Technology(TECL) Small Caps(TNA) Russell 2000(URTY)

So in the paper account we will be selling.

Score - Bulls: 2   Bears: 8

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Energy as represented by ERX
• Retail as represented by RETL

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

Remaing Eight Leverage ETF Models Get Bully

With the continuing sell-off the models indicate an oversold condition.

As of the 4PM close the remaining 8 models said buy: Energy(ERX) Finance(FAS) Mid Caps(MIDU) Retail(RETL) SP 500(SPXL) Technology(TECL) Small Caps(TNA) Russell 2000(URTY)

So in the paper account we will be buying.

Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

Late Call To Buy Biotech Leverage ETF.

I use Yahoo Quotes for price and other technical data.  Sometimes overnight the numbers will change when compared to the 4PM closing numbers.  And so the models change - such as Friday's and the over weekend update for DRN (see previous post.)






 It happened again last night and to make matters worse Yahoo didn't update the #'s until Noon today.



So what changed - when I ran (today at Noon) the models using the updated overnight numbers the Biotech Leverage ETF BIB went to the buy side.

So in the paper account we will be buying BIB

Score - Bulls: 2   Bears: 8
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Biotechnology as represented by BIB

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

Real Estate Leverage ETF Model Gets Bullish

Update: 10/28 - the Friday night numbers restored the DRN model back to sell.  Today DRN is back to buy.  The ETF was purchased (in the paper account) on Friday prior to the close.  I will not replace it with today's price. Right now it is down 2%; a purchase today may  be more fruitful - but don't forget it is only mock money.


-- From Friday 10.25
Finally some action; these models are sure missing out on the new highs the indexes are hitting.

On and off today the Real Estate model based on DRN indicated a buy signal.

So in the paper account we will be buying.

Score - Bulls: 1   Bears: 9
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Real Estate as represented by DRN

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

All 10 Models Bearish

Sell Today: Biotechnology(BIB) Real Estate(DRN) Energy(ERX) Finance(FAS) Mid Caps(MIDU) Retail(RETL) SP 500(SPXL) Technology(TECL) Small Caps(TNA) Russell 2000(URTY)

So in the paper account we will be selling.

Score - Bulls: 0   Bears: 10


----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

Nine Models Are Now Bearish

Using the 1:30 numbers as closing numbers (the models are built using closing numbers) nine of the models are now bearish: Biotechnology(BIB), Energy(ERX), Finance(FAS), Mid Caps(MIDU), Retail(RETL), SP500(SPXL), Technology(TECL), Small Caps(TNA), and Russell 2000(URTY)

 If these change at 3:30 I will repost.

So in the paper account we will be selling.



Score - Bulls: 1   Bears: 9
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Real Estate as represented by DRN

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

The Remaining 2 Bearish Leveraged ETF Models Get Bullish

With all 10 models now bullish I am now more convinced that these models  based on Momentum truly act as such by giving Overbought/Oversold indications.

Using the 1:30 numbers as closing numbers the last 2 models, based on BIB (Biotech) and DRN (Real Estate),  have gone to the bullish side.

If this changes before the close I will update; if not then in the paper account we will be buying.

Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E   B E A R S   ----

With The Today's Big Sell-off 8 Models Get Bullish

Using programming models shows how unemotional stock-picking systems can be. While people fret about the on-going shenanigans in D.C. and let the overall market drop, systems that pick stocks based on price movement (or momentum such as the ones I use) simply plow ahead because they can't be agitated by world/economic news. 

Using the 1:30 numbers as closing numbers the leverage ETF models have generated several bullish signals. So today we get  Buy signals for : Energy(ERX), Finance(FAS), Mid Caps(MIDU), Retail(RETL), SP 500(SPXL), Technology(TECL), Small Caps(TNA) and Russell 2000(URTY).


I will rerun the application at 3:30.  But so far it looks like in the paper account I will be buying.

As of 3:30 the count changed from 7 buys to 3.

Finance(FAS)
Retail(RETL)
SP 500(SPXL)

Using closing numbers the count changed from 3 buys to 8.

 Energy(ERX)
 Finance(FAS)
 Mid Caps(MIDU)
 Retail(RETL)
 SP 500(SPXL)
 Technology(TECL)
 Small Caps(TNA)
 Russell 2000(URTY)

So tomorrow in the paper account I will be buying the other 5.


Score - Bulls: 8   Bears: 2
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN

The Remaining 7 Leverage ETF Models Go Back To The Sell Side

Using the 2:45 numbers as closing numbers the remaining models are now bearish: Biotechnology (BIB), Mid Caps(MIDU), Retail(RETL), SP 500(SPXL), Technology(TECL), Small Caps(TNA) and Russell 2000(URTY).

So in the paper account we will be selling.


Score - Bulls: 0   Bears: 10
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

Three Leverage ETF Models Get Bearish

Using the 2:30 numbers as closing numbers 3 models say, "Sell Today"  They are Real Estate( DRN ) Energy( ERX ) and  Finance( FAS ).


So in the paper account we will be selling.

Score - Bulls: 7   Bears: 3

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS

All Leveraged ETF Models Are Bullish

The models missed the recent rise in the market,  it'll be interesting to see if the rise continues.

I missed 3 models: Finance as represented by FAS,  Retail as represented by RETL and  SP 500 as represented by SPXL , going bullish yesterday.  And today the remaining 7: Biotechnology( BIB ) Real Estate( DRN ) Energy( ERX ) Mid Caps( MIDU ) Technology( TECL ) Small Caps( TNA )  and Russell 2000( URTY ) followed suit.

As such all 10 will be purchased in  the paper account.


Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

No Changes Since 9/4

The models are still bearish.  The system is missing out on a nice rise in prices.

This morning I rebuilt the models and got the same results.

All 10 Leverage ETF Models Are Bearish

With today's overall market run-up the models for all 10 etfs went to the sell side.

So in the paper account we will be selling: Biotechnology( BIB ) Real Estate( DRN ) Energy( ERX ) Finance( FAS ) Mid Caps( MIDU ) Retail( RETL ) SP 500( SPXL ) Technology( TECL ) Small Caps( TNA ) Russell 2000( URTY ) 

Score - Bulls: 0   Bears: 10
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

With The Sell-Off All Models Get Bullish

With the fear of what is going on in Syria the market sells off and so the models say "Buy."  All 10 leverage ETF models are now bullish: Biotechnology( BIB ) Real Estate( DRN ) Energy( ERX ) Finance( FAS ) Mid Caps( MIDU ) Retail( RETL ) SP 500( SPXL ) Technology( TECL ) Small Caps( TNA ) Russell 2000( URTY )

I used the 2:45 numbers as closing numbers and I don't see them changing much, but if they do I will repost.

So in the paper account we will be buying all 10.


Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

7 Bullish Models Turn Bearish; Leaving 0 Bullish Models.

For the leveraged ETF models all 7 bullish models are now on the bear side: Biotechnology( BIB ) Real Estate( DRN ) Retail( RETL ) SP 500( SPXL ) Technology( TECL ) Small Caps( TNA ) Russell 2000( URTY )

So in the paper account we will be selling.


Score - Bulls: 0   Bears: 10
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

Today's Sell-Off Has Two Models Get Bullish

Buy Today from 2 of the Models: Biotechnology( BIB ) and Real Estate( DRN )

So in the paper account we will be buying both leveraged ETFs.

Score - Bulls: 7   Bears: 3
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU

3 Of The Leveraged ETF Models Get Bearish

Using the 3:30 numbers we got sell signals for: Energy( ERX ) Finance( FAS ) Mid Caps( MIDU )

So in the paper account we will be selling.

Score - Bulls: 5   Bears: 5
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU

(Update) Two (not One) More Models (Technology and R2K) Go To The Buy Side.

Today the Technology(TECL)  and Russell 2000( URTY ) models got bullish.

So in the paper account we will be buying TECL and URTY.
 
Score - Bulls: 8   Bears: 2
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN

Using Updated Closing Numbers Adds 1 More Bullish Model

On top of the 5 bullish models from yesterday's 3:30 numbers - this morning using actual closing numbers the models produced one more bullish call.  Add Small Caps as represented by TNA to the list of bullish ETFs.

There only remains 4 bearish leverage ETF models.

So this morning in the paper account we will be buying  TNA

Score - Bulls: 6   Bears: 4

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

3:30 Numbers Have 5 Leverage ETF Models Bullish

Using the 3:30 numbers and running the models as if they are the closing numbers has 5 of the 10 Leverage ETF models bullish.

Buy Today: Energy(ERX) Finance(FAS) Mid Caps(MIDU) Retail(RETL) SP 500(SPXL)
 
So in the paper account we will be buying. 

Score - Bulls: 5   Bears: 5

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

Preliminary Numbers Show All 10 Leverage ETF Models Bullish

Using the 11:30 prices as closing prices all 10 models are now bullish. - This may change as the day progresses.   No action will be taken in the paper account until just before the close.  So for now it stands as:

Buy Today: Biotechnology(BIB) Real Estate(DRN) Energy(ERX) Finance(FAS) Mid Caps(MIDU) Retail(RETL) SP 500(SPXL) Technology(TECL) Small Caps(TNA) Russell 2000(URTY)
Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0


----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

Sold Too Early Yesterday But Now May Be Better.

Yesterday, a half hour prior to the close, all 10 models went bullish. Then after the close the numbers came in showing I sold 3 of the leverage ETFs too early.  With today's huge ramp-up  the models associated with those  three are now in the bearish camp.  And because of the premature call I may rebuild the models based on executing transaction on the ETFs on the next day after a buy or sell call.

There will be no transactions executed in the paper account  since the 3 were sold yesterday.

Sell today: Retail(RETL, uggh up today  (~2%) ) Technology(TECL up today (~3%)) Small Caps(TNA up today(~4%))
 
Score - Bulls: 0   Bears: 10

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

End Of Day Sell-Off Removes 3 Bearish Calls From The Models

Using closing numbers three models remain on the bullish side (as of 3:30 all 10 models were bearish).  Since the paper account transactions were executed prior to the close the 3 will remain sold in that account.

Here are the updated bearish calls.

Sell today: Biotechnology(BIB) Real Estate(DRN) Energy(ERX) Finance(FAS) Mid Caps(MIDU) SP 500(SPXL) Russell 2000(URTY)

 
Score - Bulls: 3   Bears: 7
----  T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Retail as represented by RETL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

With Today's Rally All 10 Models Get Bearish

(AS OF THE CLOSE 3 models remained bullish see http://aggregatinguo.blogspot.com/2013/07/end-of-day-sell-off-removes-3-bearish.html )

All 10 models say sell

So all 10 leveraged ETFs will be sold in the paper account.

Score - Bulls: 0   Bears: 10

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

----    T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

Last 3 Models Get Bullish

The last 3 (of 10) models went to the bullish side: Biotechnology(BIB), Technology(TECL) and Russell 2000(URTY).


The Russell 2000 model went bearish over the weekend and flipped back to bullish today.  And since I didn't see the signal Friday Afternoon the paper account still holds it.   Also the paper account activity has not been keeping up with the models.  For instance this afternoon the account purchased RETL to keep the account in line with the model calls.

So in the paper account the biotech and tech leverage ETFs will be purchased.


Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0
----  T H E   B U L L S  ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----  T H E   B E A R S  ----

With Today's General Market Sell-off Some Models Get Bullish

The models for Real Estate (DRN), Energy (ERX), SP 500 (SPXL) and the Mid Caps (MIDU) joined the Small Cap (TNA) model on the bullish side.  

3:30PM Update Technology (TECL) and Finance (FAS) are also bullish.

So following the plan  the ETFs will be purchased this afternoon sometime after 3 PM in the paper account.

Score:7 Bull and 3 Bears -
----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Small Caps based on TNA     
• Real Estate, based on DRN 
• Energy, based on ERX  
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU   
• Technology, based on TECL
• Finance, based on FAS 

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY 
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Retail, based on RETL

As Of Noon = Biotech and Retail Go Bearish

One remaining bullish indicator - Small Caps.  Let's see what happens after 3PM today.
 Score: 1 Bull and 9 Bears -


----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Small Caps based on TNA    

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Technology, based on TECL
• Real Estate, based on DRN 
• Finance, based on FAS
• Energy, based on ERX 
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Mid Caps based on MIDU   
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Retail, based on RETL

Small Caps & Retail Did Not Turn Bearish

After the nightly database run the models for Small Caps (TNA) and Retail (RETL) did not go to the bears side.

In the paper account, since the sell trade was executed yesterday around 3:30PM the trade will stand.  This is similar to last Friday's premature buy indicator for Technology (TECL).
In retrospect, this business of executing trades prior to the close is getting a bit unwieldy.  Maybe I will have to revisit the process of purchasing prior to the close and execute trades at the open.


 Score: 3 Bulls and 7 Bears -


----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Retail, based on RETL 
• Small Caps based on TNA    

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Technology, based on TECL
• Real Estate, based on DRN 
• Finance, based on FAS
• Energy, based on ERX 
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Mid Caps based on MIDU  

A Quick Turn-Around Has Several Models Bearish

The models waited until last week to get bullish thereby missing a great run-up.  And now six of them have gone back to being bearish, in just a couple of business days.  Early this afternoon the models for Real Estate(DRN), Energy(ERX), MidCaps(MIDU), S&P 500(SPXL) and Small Caps(TNA) flipped back to the sell side.

 

So following the plan, unless the 3PM run indicates differently,  the ETFs will be sold this afternoon sometime after 3 PM in the paper account.

 Score: 2 Bulls and 8 Bears -

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Retail, based on RETL  

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Technology, based on TECL
• Small Caps based on TNA   
• Real Estate, based on DRN 
• Finance, based on FAS
• Energy, based on ERX 
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Mid Caps based on MIDU  

Two More Bullish Signals - Small Caps and Tech - Update - only Small Caps, not Tech.

Update Saturday 8:00 AM: After running the models using updated closing numbers TECL is still  bearish (sold). Even though the model didn't give a bullish indicator the paper account will keep the purchased shares and I will wait until Tuesday afternoon to see if the buy indicator returns;  if not then the paper account will sell the shares at that time.

Small Caps, as represented by the 3X leveraged ETF TNA, and Technology, represented by the 3x ETF TECL,  are now showing bullish signs.

  

The ETFs will be purchased afternoon sometime after 3 PM in the paper account.

 Score: 8 Bulls and 2 Bears - 

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Small Caps based on TNA   
• Finance, based on FAS
• Real Estate, based on DRN
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Energy, based on ERX   
• SP 500, based on SPXL.  
• Retail, based on RETL  
• Mid Caps based on MIDU   

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Technology, based on TECL

Three Weeks Later Finally Some Buy Signals.

I ran the models around 12 Noon. The Biotech (see BIB), Real Estate (DRN), Energy(ERX) and Finance (FAS) models went to the buy side.

Boy - did these models miss the recent run-up!  Good thing I'm only paper trading. Over the past 3 weeks, while I was waiting,  I made a slight change to the program that builds the models; the change, to the back-test method, entailed executing trades on the same day as the indicator-change day.  As such purchases in the paper account will be made on the day the model is run - the previous protocol was  to execute trades towards the end of the next day's trading period.

I will rerun the models after 3 today, if there are any changes I will repost.
  

Otherwise, the ETFs will be purchased afternoon sometime after 3 PM in the paper account.

3 O'clock Update: 2 more buy indicators since the noon run.  Retail (RETL) and S&P 500 (SPXL).  So these 2 will added to the paper account. What really surprises me about these models since I've been running them is that I thought they acted like overbought/oversold indicators - maybe that's not the case.

3:50 Update -  Adding Mid Caps (MIDU) to the buy list.

  Score: 7 Bulls and 3 Bears - 

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Finance, based on FAS
• Real Estate, based on DRN
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Energy, based on ERX   
• SP 500, based on SPXL.  
• Retail, based on RETL  
• Mid Caps based on MIDU   

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Technology, based on TECL
• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Small Caps based on TNA 

The Noon Numbers Have The Remaining Models Go Bearish.

Just like yesterday  I ran the models around 12 Noon.  The results, like yesterday,  are bearish.  

The last 3 leverage ETFs say sell: SP 500, based on SPXL,Finance, based on FAS and Real Estate, based on DRN The other 7 went bearish yesterday.
 

I will rerun the models after 3 today and sometime on Saturday, after the nightly updates, if there are any changes I will repost.
  

Otherwise, the ETFs will be sold sometime Monday afternoon in the paper account

Update:
1) as of 3PM the models have not changed
2) the overnight updates hold, so let the selling continue.

Score: 0 Bulls and 10 Bears - 

----------- T H E   B U L L S --------------- 
 

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• SP 500, based on SPXL.  
• Finance, based on FAS
• Real Estate, based on DRN
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Energy, based on ERX  
• Mid Caps based on MIDU   
• Retail, based on RETL  
• Technology, based on TECL 
• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Small Caps based on TNA