Secular Bear Through 2018?

This from my friend Brian Day

A Short Tale of 2 Similar Leveraged ETFs.

In the past couple of days I have noticed a discrepancy between 2 very similar leverage ETFs:  Direxion Daily Nat Gas Rltd Bull 3X Shrs ( GASL ) and VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas  (UGAZ ).

Both of these 3X leverage ETFs are based on natural gas.  Now if any of you is living in some part of the U.S. you know the price of n. g. has gone up considerably in the past week due to the cold snap.  But while UGAZ is acting like a 3X in relation to the price of natural gas GASL has been doing almost the opposite.

Chart above is YTD for UGAZ (blue shaded area), GASL (red line) and UNG (green).

Today (as of 3PM)  UGAZ is up 7.03(25.71%) and UNG is up 1.92(8.42%) while GASL is down 0.81(2.25%).  

The only difference I can see is that UGAZ trade volumes is 30x larger than GASL so maybe there's a bit of manipulation with the lower volume ETF?

Overnight Update Has The Real Estate Leverage ETF A Buy

Real Estate as represented by DRN is a buy and as reported on Monday  SP 500 as represented by SPXL  was not a sell.

Being that the models have kept SPXL but it was sold on Monday I will not purchase it in the paper account.

Something is changing w/ the overnight data that messing up the numbers.  When the models were run all day Tuesday and yesterday they still showed SPXL as a sell and yet this morning the sell signal was no longer present. A review of the program that produces the model is in order.

Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

The SP500 Leverage ETF (SPXL) Model Slips To The Sell Side

Sell Today: SP 500(SPXL)

In the paper account we will NOT be selling because, as noted earlier posts, I missed the buy signal.   BTW - on the day of the buy signal (1/13) the close was 60.72; presently it is 62.98.

Score - Bulls: 8   Bears: 2

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL

One More Model (Biotech BIB) Says Buy

The overnight (updated) numbers gave an additional buy signal; this one for BIB.

So on Tuesday morning (markets are closed in the US on Monday) in the paper account I will be buying BIB

Score - Bulls: 9   Bears: 1

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Real Estate as represented by DRN

7 Models 7 Buys

Based on the2:30 numbers - Buy Today: Energy(ERX) Finance(FAS) Mid Caps(MIDU) Retail(RETL) Technology(TECL) Small Caps(TNA) Russell 2000(URTY)

As posted yesterday I missed the buy signal for SPXL that occurred on the thirteenth.

So in the paper account we will be buying.

Score - Bulls: 8   Bears: 2

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN

Missed A Buy Signal

Running the models with today's numbers the model for SPXL says it gave a buy signal on 1/13.  Either I missed it or the overnight numbers altered the previous days' numbers.  

As such,  I won't be purchasing SPXL in the paper account since the buy date is well passed.

All 10 Models Flip Bearishly

Sell Today: Biotechnology(BIB) Real Estate(DRN) Energy(ERX) Finance(FAS) Mid Caps(MIDU) Retail(RETL) SP 500(SPXL) Technology(TECL) Small Caps(TNA) Russell 2000(URTY)
So in the paper account we will be selling.
Score - Bulls: 0   Bears: 10
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

All 10 Models Go Bullish. Is the market oversold?

The models have been very quiet, since early December and today (using the 1:30 #s) they all went to the buy side.

Buy Today: Biotechnology(BIB), Real Estate(DRN), Energy(ERX), Mid Caps(MIDU), Retail(RETL), SP 500(SPXL), Technology(TECL), Small Caps(TNA), and Russell 2000(URTY)

So in the paper account we will be buying.

Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0
----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----