Only One Buy Indicator Remains

Using  today's closing  #'s the Technology model based on TECL. is now bearish.  As such TECL will be sold in the paper trading account  on Monday afternoon.

The score is now 1 bull and 8 bears.

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Retail, based on RETL.

----------- T H E   B E A R S-------------- 

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Small Caps based on TNA. 
• Finance, based on FAS.    
• Energy, based on ERX.
• Technology, based on TECL.

My Short-Term Models for Retail and Technology Are Bullish

From yesterday's #'s the models based on RETL and TECL are now bullish.  As such they will be purchase in the paper trading account this afternoon.

The score is now 2 bulls and 7 bears.

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Retail, based on RETL.
• Technology, based on TECL.

----------- T H E   B E A R S-------------- 

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Small Caps based on TNA. 
• Finance, based on FAS.    
• Energy, based on ERX.

Back To No Bull Indicators & 9 Bears

From Friday's numbers the last of the 3 bullish indicators turned.  So near Monday's close I will sell ERX, FAS, and TNA.

So the score stands 9 bears and 0 bulls.

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

----------- T H E   B E A R S-------------- 

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Retail, based on RETL.
• Technology, based on TECL.
• Small Caps based on TNA. 
• Finance, based on FAS.    
• Energy, based on ERX.
 

Technical Analysis Whipsaw

One problem when using TA to tell you when to buy or sell is whipsaw - when an indicator says buy and then within the next day or two it says sell and vice versa.  Well that's what happened with my model.  Two of the buy indicators on Monday became sells today - TECL and RETL.  So over in my paper account (see the WHAT IF page) TECL and RETL will be sold.  And to follow up with yesterday's activity FAS and ERX were purchased today.

So the score stands 6 bears and 3 bulls.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------

• Small Caps based on TNA. 
• Finance, based on FAS.    
• Energy, based on ERX.

----------- T H E   B E A R S-------------- 

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU.
• Real Estate, based on DRN.
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Retail, based on RETL.
• Technology, based on TECL.

2 More Bullish Indicators

Finance and Energy now have bull indicators.

So the score stands 4 bears and 5 bulls.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------
   Retail, based on RETL.
   Technology, based on TECL.
   Small Caps based on TNA. 
   Finance, based on FAS. 
   Energy, based on ERX.


-----------B E A R S-------------- 

    Biotechnology, represented by BIB.
    Mid Caps based on MIDU.
    Real Estate, based on DRN.
    SP 500, based on SPXL. 
    

3 New Bull Indicators

 With today's drop the bull indicator is shown for 3 of the leverage ETFs the model is following,  note I dropped MATL from the list.
Updated 3.19 - SPXL was not a buy TECL was the buy.

So the score stands 6 bears and 3 bulls.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------
   Retail, based on RETL.
   Technology, based on TECL.
   Small Caps based on TNA. 
-----------B E A R S-------------- 

    Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
    Finance, based on FAS. 
    Energy, based on ERX.
    Mid Caps based on MIDU. 
    Real Estate, based on DRN.      

    SP 500, based on SPXL. 
    

Models Rebuilt And A New Beginning

I got bored with the old models.  They seemed to be not doing much of anything but waiting. So this weekend I reran the model builder using different logic.   Basically it is an average of all possibilities for each of three short term momentum periods 3, 4, and 5.   Only  periods and crossover points that produced a positive return were used when summing to get to the average.  Below are the results. As you can see from the back test, which covers that last 250 trading days, the results are impressive.  Ahhh... but past results do not guarantee future returns so I will start paper trading (see the What IF page) to test the process hence forth.  And since the falling 3 model is presently all bearish, thereby providing a good basis point, this model will be used in the paper trail.

 

One fact that bothers me about these models.  Looking at the previous call and current call dates NONE OF THEM CALLED FOR A BUY JUST PRIOR TO THIS CURRENT MARKET RISE AND SOME ARE CALLING (See the Falling 4 and 5 models) A BUY AS OF THIS PAST FRIDAY.

Falling 3 Model

Symbol	Backtest $	Previous Call	Date	Current Call	Date
tecl	14,598.90	Bull	2013-02-20	Bear	2013-02-27
fas	19,072.79	Bull	2013-02-20	Bear	2013-02-27
erx	20,396.04	Bull	2013-02-20	Bear	2013-02-28
retl	13,226.05	Bull	2013-02-20	Bear	2013-02-27
drn	15,765.17	Bull	2012-11-08	Bear	2012-11-13
tna	24,221.62	Bull	2013-02-20	Bear	2013-02-27
spxl	16,875.01	Bull	2013-02-21	Bear	2013-02-27
bib	14,185.06	Bull	2012-11-08	Bear	2012-11-13
midu	17,697.77	Bull	2013-02-21	Bear	2013-02-27

Falling 4 Model

Symbol	Backtest $	Previous Call	Date	Current Call	Date
tecl	13,440.18	Bear	2013-02-27	Bull	2013-03-15
fas	16,023.56	Bull	2013-02-21	Bear	2013-02-27
erx	20,442.04	Bull	2013-02-20	Bear	2013-02-27
retl	14,664.62	Bear	2013-02-27	Bull	2013-03-15
drn	15,559.11	Bull	2013-02-21	Bear	2013-02-27
tna	14,184.42	Bear	2013-02-27	Bull	2013-03-15
spxl	17,434.88	Bull	2013-02-21	Bear	2013-02-27
bib	14,303.49	Bull	2013-02-21	Bear	2013-02-27
midu	18,480.19	Bull	2013-02-21	Bear	2013-02-27

Falling 5 Model

Symbol	Backtest $	Previous Call	Date	Current Call	Date
tecl	14,968.96	Bear	2013-02-27	Bull	2013-03-15
fas	18,232.52	Bear	2013-03-04	Bull	2013-03-15
erx	21,922.02	Bear	2013-02-27	Bull	2013-03-15
retl	16,401.46	Bear	2013-02-27	Bull	2013-03-15
drn	18,681.09	Bull	2013-02-20	Bear	2013-02-27
tna	21,621.15	Bear	2013-02-27	Bull	2013-03-15
spxl	19,890.52	Bull	2013-02-21	Bear	2013-03-04
bib	16,106.09	Bull	2013-02-21	Bear	2013-02-27
midu	19,333.63	Bull	2013-02-21	Bear	2013-03-04

All 10 Models Are Bearish.

For the past two hours all of my models are bearish.  As such I will close out all of the paper holdings.


So the score stands 10 bears and 0 bulls.

---------- T H E   B U L L S --------------


  -----------B E A R S-------------- 

    Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
    Finance, based on FAS. 
    SP 500, based on SPXL. 
    Retail, based on RETL.
    Energy, based on ERX.        
   Small Caps based on TNA. 
    Mid Caps based on MIDU. 
    Real Estate, based on DRN.      
    Technology, based on TECL.
    Basic Materials, based on MATL.