End Of Day Sell-Off Removes 3 Bearish Calls From The Models

Using closing numbers three models remain on the bullish side (as of 3:30 all 10 models were bearish).  Since the paper account transactions were executed prior to the close the 3 will remain sold in that account.

Here are the updated bearish calls.

Sell today: Biotechnology(BIB) Real Estate(DRN) Energy(ERX) Finance(FAS) Mid Caps(MIDU) SP 500(SPXL) Russell 2000(URTY)

 
Score - Bulls: 3   Bears: 7
----  T H E   B U L L S   ----

• Retail as represented by RETL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA

----   T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

With Today's Rally All 10 Models Get Bearish

(AS OF THE CLOSE 3 models remained bullish see http://aggregatinguo.blogspot.com/2013/07/end-of-day-sell-off-removes-3-bearish.html )

All 10 models say sell

So all 10 leveraged ETFs will be sold in the paper account.

Score - Bulls: 0   Bears: 10

----   T H E   B U L L S   ----

----    T H E  B E A R S   ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

Last 3 Models Get Bullish

The last 3 (of 10) models went to the bullish side: Biotechnology(BIB), Technology(TECL) and Russell 2000(URTY).


The Russell 2000 model went bearish over the weekend and flipped back to bullish today.  And since I didn't see the signal Friday Afternoon the paper account still holds it.   Also the paper account activity has not been keeping up with the models.  For instance this afternoon the account purchased RETL to keep the account in line with the model calls.

So in the paper account the biotech and tech leverage ETFs will be purchased.


Score - Bulls: 10   Bears: 0
----  T H E   B U L L S  ----

• Biotechnology as represented by BIB
• Real Estate as represented by DRN
• Energy as represented by ERX
• Finance as represented by FAS
• Mid Caps as represented by MIDU
• Retail as represented by RETL
• SP 500 as represented by SPXL
• Technology as represented by TECL
• Small Caps as represented by TNA
• Russell 2000 as represented by URTY

----  T H E   B E A R S  ----

With Today's General Market Sell-off Some Models Get Bullish

The models for Real Estate (DRN), Energy (ERX), SP 500 (SPXL) and the Mid Caps (MIDU) joined the Small Cap (TNA) model on the bullish side.  

3:30PM Update Technology (TECL) and Finance (FAS) are also bullish.

So following the plan  the ETFs will be purchased this afternoon sometime after 3 PM in the paper account.

Score:7 Bull and 3 Bears -
----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Small Caps based on TNA     
• Real Estate, based on DRN 
• Energy, based on ERX  
• SP 500, based on SPXL.
• Mid Caps based on MIDU   
• Technology, based on TECL
• Finance, based on FAS 

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY 
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Retail, based on RETL

As Of Noon = Biotech and Retail Go Bearish

One remaining bullish indicator - Small Caps.  Let's see what happens after 3PM today.
 Score: 1 Bull and 9 Bears -


----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Small Caps based on TNA    

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Technology, based on TECL
• Real Estate, based on DRN 
• Finance, based on FAS
• Energy, based on ERX 
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Mid Caps based on MIDU   
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Retail, based on RETL

Small Caps & Retail Did Not Turn Bearish

After the nightly database run the models for Small Caps (TNA) and Retail (RETL) did not go to the bears side.

In the paper account, since the sell trade was executed yesterday around 3:30PM the trade will stand.  This is similar to last Friday's premature buy indicator for Technology (TECL).
In retrospect, this business of executing trades prior to the close is getting a bit unwieldy.  Maybe I will have to revisit the process of purchasing prior to the close and execute trades at the open.


 Score: 3 Bulls and 7 Bears -


----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Retail, based on RETL 
• Small Caps based on TNA    

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Technology, based on TECL
• Real Estate, based on DRN 
• Finance, based on FAS
• Energy, based on ERX 
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Mid Caps based on MIDU  

A Quick Turn-Around Has Several Models Bearish

The models waited until last week to get bullish thereby missing a great run-up.  And now six of them have gone back to being bearish, in just a couple of business days.  Early this afternoon the models for Real Estate(DRN), Energy(ERX), MidCaps(MIDU), S&P 500(SPXL) and Small Caps(TNA) flipped back to the sell side.

 

So following the plan, unless the 3PM run indicates differently,  the ETFs will be sold this afternoon sometime after 3 PM in the paper account.

 Score: 2 Bulls and 8 Bears -

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Retail, based on RETL  

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Technology, based on TECL
• Small Caps based on TNA   
• Real Estate, based on DRN 
• Finance, based on FAS
• Energy, based on ERX 
• SP 500, based on SPXL. 
• Mid Caps based on MIDU  

Two More Bullish Signals - Small Caps and Tech - Update - only Small Caps, not Tech.

Update Saturday 8:00 AM: After running the models using updated closing numbers TECL is still  bearish (sold). Even though the model didn't give a bullish indicator the paper account will keep the purchased shares and I will wait until Tuesday afternoon to see if the buy indicator returns;  if not then the paper account will sell the shares at that time.

Small Caps, as represented by the 3X leveraged ETF TNA, and Technology, represented by the 3x ETF TECL,  are now showing bullish signs.

  

The ETFs will be purchased afternoon sometime after 3 PM in the paper account.

 Score: 8 Bulls and 2 Bears - 

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Small Caps based on TNA   
• Finance, based on FAS
• Real Estate, based on DRN
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Energy, based on ERX   
• SP 500, based on SPXL.  
• Retail, based on RETL  
• Mid Caps based on MIDU   

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Technology, based on TECL

Three Weeks Later Finally Some Buy Signals.

I ran the models around 12 Noon. The Biotech (see BIB), Real Estate (DRN), Energy(ERX) and Finance (FAS) models went to the buy side.

Boy - did these models miss the recent run-up!  Good thing I'm only paper trading. Over the past 3 weeks, while I was waiting,  I made a slight change to the program that builds the models; the change, to the back-test method, entailed executing trades on the same day as the indicator-change day.  As such purchases in the paper account will be made on the day the model is run - the previous protocol was  to execute trades towards the end of the next day's trading period.

I will rerun the models after 3 today, if there are any changes I will repost.
  

Otherwise, the ETFs will be purchased afternoon sometime after 3 PM in the paper account.

3 O'clock Update: 2 more buy indicators since the noon run.  Retail (RETL) and S&P 500 (SPXL).  So these 2 will added to the paper account. What really surprises me about these models since I've been running them is that I thought they acted like overbought/oversold indicators - maybe that's not the case.

3:50 Update -  Adding Mid Caps (MIDU) to the buy list.

  Score: 7 Bulls and 3 Bears - 

----------- T H E   B U L L S ---------------

• Finance, based on FAS
• Real Estate, based on DRN
• Biotechnology, represented by BIB 
• Energy, based on ERX   
• SP 500, based on SPXL.  
• Retail, based on RETL  
• Mid Caps based on MIDU   

----------- T H E   B E A R S --------------  

• Technology, based on TECL
• Russell 2000 represented by  URTY
• Small Caps based on TNA